AluNews - January 2017

GCC aluminium production was over 5.2mn tonnes in 2016

Muscatdaily - January 30th, 2017

Muscat - Collectively, the five aluminium primary producers (EGA (UAE), Alba (Bahrain), Ma'aden Aluminium (SA), Qatalum (Qatar) and Sohar Aluminium (Oman) have produced 5,229,115 tonnes of primary aluminium in 2016.

"During 2016, GCC aluminium smelter and downstream have been going through disciplined productivity improvement and value creation initiatives, while maintaining a key competitive advantage of having most sophisticated facilities to produce a variety of value-added products for local and international markets.

"This is along with preserving its leadership position of high environmental standards compared to the rest of the world," said Mahmood Daylami, secretary general of Gulf Aluminium Council (GAC). GCC aluminium production constitutes 10 per cent of the total world production and is considered one of the key economic drivers for the Gulf region. Forty per cent of the total production is used by downstream aluminium industries in the Gulf and 60 per cent is exported to different parts of the world.

Sohar Aluminium was formed in September 2004 to undertake a landmark greenfield aluminium smelter project in the sultanate. It is jointly owned by Oman Oil Company, Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC - TAQA and Rio Tinto.

Rio Tinto Begins Work on New Bauxite Mine on Cape York

Aluminium Insider - January 23rd, 2017

Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto began work on a new bauxite mine in Cape York by awarding a US$53-million contract to Queensland civil engineering firm QBrit.

The new mine, dubbed the Amrun Project, is a US$2 billion operation that is expected to harvest 22.8 million metric tons per annum at the outset, with an option to boost production to 50 million metric tons at a later date. The first bauxite ore is scheduled to be mined in 2019.

Rio Tinto plans for the mine to replace the nearly-depleted East Weipa mine. Once operational, the Amrun Project will boost bauxite exports from Weipa by 10 million metric tons per year.

"Since being declared a prescribed project, Queensland's independent Coordinator-General has been monitoring all approvals the proponent requires and facilitating the timely delivery of approval processes," Said acting Minister for State Development Bill Byrne late last week.

"The Coordinator-General also approved a number of key change requests from the proponent. This project builds on Rio Tinto's long-standing existing operations in Gladstone and Weipa which have supplied the raw product used to produce 10% of the world's aluminium," he went on.

The Amrun Project will not only keep the 1,400 employed at East Weipa working, it will also secure the employment future for the 2,000 individuals employed at the Yarwun and Queensland aluminium refineries in Gladstone.

Alcoa gets $230m lifeline for Portland aluminium smelter

Herald Sun - January 20th, 2017

ALCOA'S Portland aluminium smelter has secured a four-year lifeline after striking a new electricity deal with AGL and receiving a $230 million government rescue package.

The measures help secure the jobs of 540 workers at the smelter which is critical to the health of the economy in Portland.

Alcoa yesterday said it would move to restart capacity at the smelter which has been curtailed since a power cut in December damaged equipment.

The smelter has been operating at 30 per cent capacity — costing it $1 million in revenue a day — since the blackout.

The Federal Government will provide $30 million to Alcoa while the State Government is understood to have stumped up $200 million.

Alcoa has also struck a new four-year discount electricity deal with energy giant AGL to provide 510MW of power to the smelter.

The supply deal is equivalent to 10 per cent of Victoria's total electricity load. Under the agreement AGL will have the right to curtail the smelter's operations at times of high electricity spot prices.

The future of the smelter has been in doubt since a power subsidy it has received from the State Government expired in October.

The looming closure of the Hazelwood coal-fired plant and the December blackout added to viabilityquestions.

Alcoa chief executive Roy Harvey said the deal: "Will help make the Portland smelter more resilient against market volatility, maintain hundreds of jobs and provide a bridge to a potential long-term energy solution," he said.

Shares in AGL closed 1 per cent higher at $22.77. Shares in Alumina, which is majority owned by Alcoa, closed 1.6 per cent lower at $1.795.

Boyne aluminium smelter poised to slash workforce, lower production

Australian Mining - January 20th, 2017

Rio Tinto's Boyne Smelters (BSL) is set to announce a round of job cuts after it revealed plans to reduce production.

The aluminium smelter in Gladstone, Queensland is cutting back on production as a result of high electricity prices.

It plans to reduce production by eight per cent through progressively decreasing up to 80MW of power from its production circuit. The production cutback will slash up to $110 million worth of aluminium production The Australian reports – a loss of about 45,000 tonnes of aluminium production for 2017.

Approximately 85 per cent of BSL's electricity comes from its contract with Gladstone Power Station; the other 15 per cent from the spot market. Spot electricity prices shot up to between $12-$14,000MWh over the weekend, from its $66.80MWh average the weekend before.

"Due to sustained high pricing this year, almost three times higher than the 2016 average, BSL is unable to maintain full production," the company said in a statement.

"As a result, the decision to activate a carefully managed curtailment has become necessary."

BSL general manager Joe Rea said it was the second time in three years the company had significantly reduced production because of high electricity prices.

"BSL is paying more than 500 times more than what it costs to generate electricity," he said.

"The decision to curtail production is a very difficult one. It takes months, not weeks, to bring the smelter back to a stable full capacity, and that can only happen if and when power prices become competitive.

"BSL has been unable to secure an internationally competitive price for our additional load. We are not prepared to lock into a contractual arrangement that would have us paying delivered energy prices comparable to the least competitive countries in the world outside of China."

He added that it came at a time when current Australian price for aluminium is lower than its was during the global financial crisis.

However, Queensland's state-owned power supply company Stanwell suggested the fault remained with Rio itself, which did not accept previous power contracts it was offered.

Stanwel CEO Richard Van Breda said, "If Boyne had accepted one of the many offers presented to it, not only would it have avoided the current volatility in spot prices but it would have been in a better financial position, as the contract prices offered are now at a significant discount to the spot market."

Around 1000 people work at the operations, with more than half of the smelter's economic benefit remaining in the Gladstone region.

Rio Tinto's Boyne smelter to slash output, shed jobs

The Australian - January 20th, 2017

Rio Tinto's Boyne aluminium smelter at Gladstone will slash up to $110 million of annual production and dozens of jobs, blaming soaring Queensland power prices, which it says are partly due to bidding practices of power ­generators.

But the Queensland government-owned power company Stanwell has hit back at the nation's aluminium smelter, saying the Rio subsidiary had the chance to lock in more competitive pricing but refused to do so and that taxpayers should not subsidise the multinational owners of the plant.

The stoush comes amid intense focus on capacity in the ­nation's energy grid after Queensland spot power prices last week surged beyond $13,000 per megawatt hour due to record demand amid high temperatures.

It also comes as Alcoa is expected to commit to keeping its Portland smelter operating until 2021 after it accepted a government rescue package of more than $200 million to secure more than 2000 jobs in Victoria's southwest.

Malcolm Turnbull and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews will outline the deal to the aluminium smelter's more than 500 workers today.

Boyne said the spot price of Queensland power had jumped to between $12,000 and $14,000 per megawatt hour on the weekend, from an average of $66.80 per megawatt hour the weekend before, despite significant power capacity being available.

"Electricity prices in Queensland and the recent bidding practices of generators are putting Boyne jobs at risk," Boyne Smelters general manager Joe Rea said. The company did not say what the bidding practices were.

"Boyne is paying more than 500 times more than what it costs to generate electricity," Mr Rea said.

"The decision to curtail production is a very difficult one. It takes months, not weeks, to bring the smelter back to a stable full ­capacity, and that can only happen if and when power prices become competitive."

Boyne said it would cut up to 45,000 tonnes of production, valued at $110m at current prices, this year. It is believed up to 30 jobs are at risk.

Aluminium's chief cost is power used to convert alumina into metal, meaning smelters are very sensitive to changes in electricity prices.

Stanwell chief executive Richard Van Breda was quick hit back after Boyne flagged the cuts, saying the smelter should not have let itself get into this situation.

"Stanwell strongly refutes any allegations of inappropriate bidding," Mr Van Breda said.

"The market is working as intended and in all cases Stanwell has been totally transparent in its trading activities in the wholesale electricity market and has acted in accordance with market rules and conventions."

Mr Van Breda put the heat on Boyne's decision to hold off on entering long-term power deals.

"If Boyne had accepted one of the many offers presented to it, not only would it have avoided the current volatility in spot prices but it would have been in a better financial position, as the contract prices offered are now at a significant discount to the spot market," Mr Van Breda said.

"Since 2015, Stanwell has engaged with Boyne on numerous occasions. Unfortunately, Boyne has chosen not to accept any of these offers, citing that electricity contract prices offered by Stanwell are uncommercial to their business given current aluminium market trading conditions.

"As a government-owned corporation, Stanwell will not offer uncommercial contracts which would effectively see Stanwell and its owners, the people of Queensland, subsidising the ­operations of a multinational company."

Rio Tinto operates and owns 59.4 per cent of Boyne, with Japanese companies owning the rest.

Mr Van Breda said the high spot prices should not be ­surprising to big power users. "Hot weather in Queensland during summer and early autumn traditionally results in a narrowing between supply and demand," Mr Van Breda said.

"High prices in Queensland's wholesale electricity market are currently being driven by high demand in response to very hot weather conditions across the state."

Boyne produces about 576,000 tonnes of aluminium a year and employs about 1000 people. The smelter gets about 85 per cent of its power, or 810MW, from the Gladstone Power Station, which is 42 per cent-owned by Rio. It buys the rest from the spot market.

"Boyne has been unable to ­secure an internationally competitive price for our additional load," Mr Rea said.

"We are not prepared to lock into a contractual arrangement that would have us paying delivered energy prices comparable to the least competitive countries in the world outside of China."

The Australian Energy Regulator has launched an investigation into Queensland wholesale electricity spot prices after they surged above $5000 per megawatt hour once on January 13 and four times on January 14. It plans to publish is report within 40 days.

Portland's Alcoa aluminium smelter announcement expected

Daily Telegraph - January 20th, 2017

LATEST: MORE than 500 Victorian jobs are secure after Alcoa reached a four-year power agreement with AGL to keep the Portland aluminium smelter open.

The future of Alcoa's smelter had been up in the air after a major power outage knocked out more than half of its production capacity, costing $1 million a day.

The company said it will immediately begin work to restart the capacity that had been lost due to the power outage.

The state and federal governments will also make a contribution to the smelter.

"The Victorian State and Australian Federal governments are strong proponents of the Portland Aluminium smelter, our employees, their families and the broader Portland community, and we thank them for their unwavering support," Alcoa's chief executive Roy Harvey said.

"Today's government and energy agreements will help make the Portland smelter more resilient against market volatility, maintain hundreds of jobs and provide a bridge to a potential long term energy solution."

Terms of the electricity agreement with AGL were not disclosed.

Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed the government would make a"significant contribution" to the smelter over four years along with the Turnbull Government.

"We promised Portland workers we would leave no stone unturned in our efforts to keep the smelter open — and we have delivered certainty to thousands of local workers and their families," Mr Andrews said.

"Keeping workers in jobs and supporting Victorian manufacturing is a Labor Government priority and here in Portland, we will continue to grow jobs and create new opportunities." Industry Minister Wade Noonan said: "We've been working around the clock to keep the smelter open because the Labor Government looks out for workers and their families." "The smelter is critical to Victoria's economy and we have made sure the Portland region does not lose out following December's power outage."

Rio starts work on new bauxite mine

Mining Weekly - January 19th, 2017

PERTH (miningweekly.com) – Diversified giant Rio Tinto has awarded a A$70-million bulk earthworks contract to Queensland-based civil engineering firm QBrit for work at its A$2.6-billion Amrun bauxite project, in Cape York.

The project will produce at an initial rate of 22.8-million tonnes a year, with the option to expand to up to 50-million tonnes a year, with first output targeted for 2019.

Production from the Amrun project will replace the depleted East Weipa mine, and will increase the overall bauxite exports from Weipa by about 10-million tonnes.

"Since being declared a prescribed project, Queensland's independent Coordinator-General has been monitoring all approvals the proponent requires and facilitating the timely delivery of approval processes," acting Minister for State Development, Bill Byrne, said on Thursday.

"The Coordinator-General also approved a number of key change requests from the proponent.

"This project builds on Rio Tinto's long-standing existing operations in Gladstone and Weipa which have supplied the raw product used to produce 10% of the world's aluminium," he said.

Once operational, the Amrun project will support the continued employment of the current 1 400-strong workforce based in Weipa, as well as more than 2 000 employees based at the Yarwun and Queensland aluminium refineries in Gladstone that are fed with bauxite from Cape York.

GCC aluminium production tops 5m T in 2016

Trade Arabia - January 18th, 2017

Collectively the five aluminium primary producers EGA (UAE), Alba (Bahrain), Ma'aden Aluminium (Saudi Arabia), Qatalum (Qatar) and Sohar Aluminium (Oman) have produced 5.22 million tonnes of primary Aluminium in 2016.

"During 2016 GCC aluminium smelter and downstream have been going through disciplined productivity improvement and cost cutting initiatives, while maintaining key competitive advantage of having most sophisticated facilities to produce a variety of value added products for local and international market. At the same time preserving its leadership position of high environmental standards, compared to the rest of the world," the Gulf Aluminium Council was quoted as saying by Wam, the official Emirates news agency.

GCC aluminium production constitutes 10 per cent of the total world production and is considered one of the key economic drivers for the Gulf region. Forty per cent of the total production are utilised by the downstream aluminium industries in the Gulf and 60 percent exported to different parts of the world.

Rio Tinto's 2016 bauxite, alumina, aluminum output exceed expectations

S&P Global Platts - January 17th, 2017

Rio Tinto produced more bauxite, alumina and aluminum than anticipated in 2016, the group said Tuesday in a production report. Its bauxite yield came in at 47.7 million mt, above guidance of 47 million mt given last October, and up 9% from 2015.

Annual production records were achieved at the Australian mines of Weipa in Queensland (up 6%) and Gove in the Northern Territory (up 21%) through system improvements, the company said.

The strong output and healthy demand from China enabled the group to ship 29.3 million mt to third parties in 2016, up 10% from 2015, while fourth quarter shipments were 12% higher than the corresponding quarter in 2015.

Last October, Rio Tinto raised its bauxite production guidance for 2016 to 47 million mt from 45 million mt on the back of strong yields from the Weipa and Gove mines. At the time, the group left its production guidance for alumina and aluminum unchanged at 7.8 million mt and 3.6 million mt respectively.

Rio Tinto netted 8.2 million mt in alumina production in 2016, up 5% from 2015, due mainly to operational improvements at the Yarwun refinery in Queensland, where output was up 11% year on year. The Jonquiere and Alumar refineries in Canada and Brazil also achieved record annual production.

Aluminum production was 10% higher than 2015 at 3.65 million mt, helped by record annual production at 10 smelters, notably at the revamped Kitimat smelter in Canada, which has produced at nameplate capacity since April 2016.

Rio Tinto Tuesday put its 2017 guidance for bauxite at 48 million-50 million mt, with alumina output anticipated at 8 million-8.2 million mt and aluminum at 3.5 million-3.7 million mt.

Odisha Mining Deal May Lead to Bauxite Stream for Vedanta's Lanjigarh Refinery

Aluminium Insider - January 16th, 2017

London's Vedanta Resources plc's project in Odisha may have won some breathing room as the state's government has sealed a deal to allow state-owned firm Odisha Mining Corporation to access the bauxite reserves in Kodingamali bauxite mines.

Vedanta has had difficulty obtaining a steady supply of raw materials for Lanjigarh alumina refinery after the Niyamgiri bauxite mining project was shuttered. The project was successfully scuttled by protests from local tribes to the Indian Supreme Court. As a result of this closure, the joint venture between Vedanta and Odisha Mining was necessarily ended, leading to Vedanta's calls for a source to replace what it had been receiving from Niyamgiri.

Those calls may be answered as a result of a lease signed on Wednesday by Odisha Mining for two bauxite mines in Kalrapat and Sasubahumali, located about sixty miles from Lanjigarh. Although these mines have been held in trust for Odisha Mining, the firm has obtained long-awaited forest and environmental clearances, which paved the way for last week's signing and a possible start to bauxite mining in the near future.

A steady source of bauxite ore may lead to a production increase at the Lanjigarh refinery. The plant is producing one million metric tons of alumina per annum at present, which is roughly half its current nameplate capacity. According to Vedanta, the refinery's installed capacity can be doubled to four million metric tons, which is the capacity level for which it has government permission to produce.

Eurasian Resources Group Boasts Record Output in 2016

Aluminium Insider - January 12th, 2017

Eurasian Resources Group announced on Monday that its plant in Kazakhstan turned out over 235,000 metric tons of primary aluminium last year, which was in excess of its annual production target and was one of its highest production volumes since the plant opened nine years ago.

Kazakhstan Aluminium Smelter JSC (KAS), which is the country's sole producer of aluminium, has a nameplate capacity of 250 thousand metric tons per annum. The plant ran at 94% of its design capacity in 2016, which was 6.3% above levels for the previous year. The plant averaged 2,446 kilograms of primary aluminium per reduction cell, according to the firm's numbers.

In order to achieve this level of production, electrical consumption was reduced from 13,460 kWh to 12, 746 kWh. This power savings was accomplished by dropping the default voltage on reduction cells from 4.05 volts to 3.99 volts.

The firm says that the production technology used at KAS has "significant environmental credentials," placing the plant among the top ten of the world's best aluminium manufacturers. Among its environmentally-responsible techniques is the prebaked anode technology used in aluminium production, which it characterizes as "the most advanced, environmentally friendly aluminium production solution in use." KAS boasts that it turned out 136,000 metric tons of proprietary anodes last year. As a result of this technology, KAS was recently lauded by the Kazakh government with a "Quality Leader" award at the Altyn Sapa Awards of the President of Kazakhstan.

The firm says it has dropped the power used per ton of primary aluminum threefold in the last nine years thanks to its closed waste-management cycle and use of gas-cleaning equipment specially manufactured for the plant by Alstom. KAS indicates that the technology in use captures 99.7% of the plant's harmful emissions. Additionally, the firm launched an ISO 50001 energy-management system three years ago that has cut electrolytic aluminium power use by 1.4% over the standard value, and 2.7% over the design value.

Alcoa wants its struggling aluminium smelter in Portland, Victoria, to be "viable in its own right" as talks over its future and power supply continue.

SBS - January 11th, 2017

Alcoa wants its struggling aluminium smelter in regional Victoria to be "viable in its own right" as it continues talks with the state and federal governments over the Portland plant's future.

Commercial discussions over a new power supply are also ongoing, Alcoa Australia managing director Michael Parker says in a statement released on Wednesday.

The future of the smelter has been under a cloud for some time and it has been working at less than 30 per cent capacity since a power cut in December.

Mr Parker says since the power outage, Alcoa and the government had done "a great deal of analysis" of the plant.

"Our employees, contractors, suppliers, customers and the Portland community can be assured that every possible option is being considered," he said.

"Our goal is for the smelter to be viable in its own right, without the need for government support, but clearly in the current environment that remains a significant challenge."

Federal and Victorian industry ministers Greg Hunt and Wade Noonan went to New York in December in a bid to keep the smelter open.

The Portland smelter employs about 500 permanent staff and 160 contractors.

It contributes about $120 million to the local economy in wages, salaries and local supply contracts, Alcoa says.

Nalco logs 18% growth in bauxite output in 2016

Business Standard - January 9th, 2017

This is the highest growth for Nalco since inception and also a record in the mining industry.

Central PSU National Aluminium Company (Nalco) has recorded a growth of 18 per cent in 2016 in its bauxite output. The growth in bauxite production is Nalco's highest since inception and also a record in the mining industry, the company's chairman and managing director (CMD) T K Chand said.

"During the financial year 2016-17, Nalco will surpass its production capacity of 6.82 million tonne (mt) and will achieve 7.32 mt production," Chand said on the occasion of Nalco's Foundation Day.

In the stock market, Nalco's share price has registered an increase of 68 per cent from Rs 40.20 to Rs 67.60.

Nalco signed an MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) with the city-based Utkal University to collaborate on some specific areas - R&D (Research & Development) projects, baseline and impact assessment survey for CSR projects and industry institution interaction where the university will be one of the key institutions, extend internship and vocational training to students of the university and extend its support in skill development training programmes for underprivileged people of Odisha.

Nalco has been one of the major investors in Odisha. Of late, it has planned to set up a new greenfield smelter at Kamakhyanagar. The site chosen for the new smelter is close to Gajamara in Dhenkanal district where Nalco is teaming up with power utility NTPC (Nalco Power Company Ltd) for setting up a 2400 Mw coal-fired power station. This power project estimated to cost Rs 14,000 crore, will be implemented by a joint venture company titled NTPC.

The proposed smelter's capacity is pegged at 0.6 million tonne per annum. Power generated from the planned super thermal power station will feed this greenfield smelter.

The new smelter is expected to go on stream in nearly four years. This state-of-the-art smelter will make use of the latest in aluminium smelting technology.

Nalco is also going for brownfield expansion of its existing smelter project at Angul whose nameplate capacity is 0.46 mtpa. The navratna company has a Capex (capital expenditure) of Rs 10,000 crore to add 0.5 mtpa capacity to this smelter. Land and associated infrastructure needed for this smelter expansion is in place. With the expansion, Nalco hopes to prune cost of production and achieve economy of scale. The company will also deploy the latest technology to ensure reduced energy consumption and high productivity.

Alba achieves production milestone

Trade Arabia - January 8th, 2017

Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), one of the world's leading aluminium smelters based in Bahrain, achieved its highest ever metal production of 971,420 metric tonnes (mt) in 2016, up by 1.1 per cent year-on-year as compared to 960,643 mt in 2015.

Commenting on Alba's milestone achievement, Tim Murray, chief executive officer, said: "We are proud to be celebrating yet another record in production despite the tough market conditions. Alba has succeeded once again due to the hard work of its people, effective teamwork and commitment to operational efficiency."

"This achievement is significant because it was accomplished on the back of our high safety performance and without significant additional capital expenditures, only by relying on our culture of continuous improvement.

"I congratulate everyone on the record-production and look forward to bigger achievements in 2017 as when united, we do better than necessary to improve our performance and plant reliability," he added.

A ceremony to mark the milestone production was held today (January 8) at Alba Oasis, which was attended by Alba executive management, directors, managers and employees from various departments.

Alumina supply contract

Aluminium International Today - January 6th, 2017

Noranda Alumina has secured a long term agreement with the Century Aluminum to supply smelters in Hawesville and Sebree, Kentucky with smelter grade alumina.

Commenting on the announcement, David D'Addario, the chairman and chief executive officer of Noranda and managing partner of DADA Holdings, said that the long term agreement with the Century Aluminum marks an essential development in Noranda's future.

The alumina refining and Jamaican bauxite mining assets of Noranda were acquired by DADA Holdings in the late 2016, which is an investment and management company located in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The new contract will cover the total alumina requirement of the Century smelters.

According to the DADA management group, Noranda asset was procured to find a stable, long-term outlet for a substantial portion of its alumina production.

They further commented that this contract will support the company to expand their alumina refining business.

Alcoa to permanently shutter Suriname smelter

Mining Weekly - January 4th, 2017

VANCOUVER (miningweekly.com) – Aluminium producer Alcoa said Tuesday it will permanently close the Suralco aluminium smelter in Suriname, which has been languishing fully curtailed since November 2015.

Pending completion of negotiations with the Suriname government regarding the Suralco's remaining activities in the South American country, Alcoa will continue to operate the Afobaka hydroelectric facility, which supplied power to the Suralco operations.

Alcoa, which recently split its upstream business from the more profitable downstream specialist manufacturing business, said it expects to book after-tax fourth-quarter charges of $90-million related to the restructuring exercise, with its share of the total costs associated with the closure estimated to be $151-million over five years, with $27-million to be spent in 2017.

Alcoa also said it would record a $31-million non-cash, after-tax charge associated with its interests in a Western Australia gas field.

The total impact of the charges is estimated to be $0.66 a share.

Alcoa said a power outage at the Portland Aluminum smelter in Victoria, Australia is not expected to have a significant unfavourable impact on fourth-quarter results.

The smelter was hit by a power outage on December 1, when a power interconnector between the states of Victoria and South Australia went down, knocking out power to both the plant's pot lines for about five-and-a-half hours.

Tiwai Point Smelter

Aluminium International Today - January 3rd, 2017

According to reports, Tiwai Point smelter is unlikely to close despite the shut-down clause.

Southland's Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, which has issued a shutdown notice, employs 800 people and brings $500 million annually to the region's economy. However, the smelter is expected to be operating despite the shutdown clause.

Once the company's results for 2016 are released in the next few months, it may give a clear indication of its future. However, it is almost certain that the plant is not going to shut down in the short to medium term.